PALM get it Right this Time? Or is it just Hype?
been following PALM a long time and may have traded the stock once or
Before I go
much further I should preface this commentary with the following:
I consider myself tech savvy enough but have very little
interest in mobile computing.
I have a cell phone that makes phone calls.
does not have a radio, camera, mp3 player, gps or internet
connectivity. All I want is a cell phone that does not drop calls.
don't want Your Book, MySpace, MyFace and whatever other social
networking places there are, where I can stay constantly connected via
mobile technology. It holds no interest for me.
cell phones long after everyone else had them, my wife included,
because I viewed them (and still do) as electronic tethers.
I finally got one because it was a requirement for the job.
As a result
of this personal bias, I missed out on some very valuable
look around and see people with their phone receivers hooked around
their ears, their white IPOD ear pieces in their ears,
their belts loaded up with mobile gadgets and their hands
clicking away on Black Berries or mobile video games.........my only
thought is that it will be a cold day in hell before I end up wired up
to cyberspace and the world at large on line, all the time.
That is not
It does not however mean that I will continue to overlook the world of
mobile computing as an investment arena:
has been steadily losing market share, share value and capital.
PALM needs something big to turn it around and get it once
competitive with industry leaders. It needs to be
and substantially better, preferably minus anything associated with the
Windows platform - some bias here as well. It also needs
Looks like a tall order to me and really requires a minimum
of due diligence.
is a minimum:
first blip on my personal radar screen was some months ago when I heard
a rumor that several Apple engineers
and senior vice presidents quit Apple to go to work for PALM.
couple weeks ago I heard another rumor that PALM spirited away a senior
engineer or three from NVIDIA.
That got me thinking PALM just
might have something interesting. What could be interesting
enough for people to leave what are undoubtedly good paying positions
with enviable companies? Something better?
What is this new product? Good luck finding out.
Wired.com - http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2008/12/palms-new-os-ph.html
is planning a massive product launch for the upcoming Consumer
Electronics Show in Las Vegas next month. It could be the company's
last, best shot at survival.
likely, actually close to a certainty, that they
will show a new OS, new user interface and probably new hardware," says Lawrence Harris, an
analyst for Wall Street brokerage firm CL King & Associates.
"This is Palm's last
prove it has what it takes to survive in a very competitive market."
Palm has industry watchers buzzing about its plans for a CES press
conference. According to analysts contacted by Wired.com, the company is likely to
debut its new, Linux-based operating system, dubbed Nova,
and show the first of a new family of smart phones that would use the
OS. Nova is scheduled for release in the first half of 2009, the
company has previously said.
largest consumer electronics products fair in the U.S., will clearly be
a make-or-break event for Palm. The company
recently posted second-quarter financial results nearly 40 percent below
what some Wall Street analysts had projected. Sales of the Centro
smartphone, the company's biggest seller, have been fading. Palm also
headwinds from a weakening economy.
currently uses its Palm OS, aka Garnet, and Windows Mobile for its
Palm OS is restricted in its use. It lacks support for high-speed HSDPA
networks, also known as 3G mobile technology.
could fix that and
offer Palm an opportunity to create a new family of products that would
go beyond the Centro and its Treo line.
have gotten industry watchers buzzing but, so far, it has held its
cards close to its chest. There have
been almost no leaks about new hardware or features of the upcoming OS.
It could be
a result of the culture that the company's many recent hires
may have brought with them.
the last 18 months, Palm has hired a number for former Apple executives
including Jon Rubenstein who was instrumental in the creation of the
iPod, Lynn Fox, former head of Mac PR and Paul Mercer, a former Apple
"It is part
Apple culture to keep things under wraps," says Harris. "And now we are
seeing greater secrecy than ever from Palm."
ended up buying a boat load at $1.82 and $2.08 a share. I
chickened out and sold 33% at $2.82 and am holding the rest.
was before the announcement of the 100 million capital infusion last
week, As of today, 12-23-08, shares have risen
convertible Class C shares at $3.25 a share to $3.65. I would
imagine those who put up the 100 million are expecting a return
considerably better than a 40 cents a share.
Elevation Partners has invested 425 million dollars in
I was watching CNBC where a couple other interesting factoids came out:
Phones to Smart Phone:
Smart Phone market share has increased from 3 to 6%
Blackberry has < 3% global market share - look at the size of
just Blackberry the company.
Palm's New architecture is expected to last 10 - 12 years
(Good Luck with That).
Elevation Partners has 39% stake in Palm, and my guess would be they
are not invested to lose money.
this new smart phone going to wow those at CES and perhaps provide
another direction for mobile technology sans anything Windows related?
I hope so.
If Stock goes over $7.00:
Replace 300' of old fence with new, guaranteed never to blow down
If stock goes
Xeriscape the front yard.
Use stops on a portion of the remaining shares
to ensure profit / loss stays on the 'profit' side.