September - October, 2015

'I don't know if I am going to vote for Trump or not, but this is what he says:

1.  Treat our veterans better.
2.  Build up our military instead of downsizing it.
3.  Construct a wall and make Mexico pay for it.
4.  Deport Illegals and if they want to come back, they have to do it legally.
5.  Bring jobs back lost to China, Japan and Mexico.
6.  Rebuild our currently rotting infrastructure.
7.  Stop sending billions to countries that hate us.
8.  The Iran treaty is a fiasco and a fraud.
9.  Our government is run by 'stupid' people - time to elect some 'smart ones'.
10. Set up equal trade agreements with China, Japan and other trading partners.
11. Make America great again instead of the laughingstock that it has become.'

~The Dozer

The Professional Opinion


~ In lieu of a professional opinion this month which is basically more of the same (buy on the dips),  I thought it was more interesting to have a look at how asset classes have performed over the last five years and it does seem to suggest that choosing the right equities is where the advantages are.

Interesting looking at the return on gold.....down 15% and in the meanwhile, all those radio ads about the benefits of owning gold and silver in your Rollover IRA's and not just paper either.  Why you can have physical gold and silver securely delivered right to your doorstep!

Me, I think I will stick with paper.

This month's winners are XL, PETS and Altria - kind of similar to last month, and the weighted average during this correction is not that bad either.
Bad Hair
Boy, a few stocks sure got slammed this last month and I had to turn off the radio. Got sick of all the ads for annuities and opportunities to buy gold and silver which are set of course, to go to record highs.

Looks like Hillary is in trouble,  Trump's hair is losing some of its lustre, the teleprompter was successful in handing over control of the mideast to the Russians., VW got caught in a major emissions scandal.... Not a real good month.

It is looking to me like the correction is probably at or near the bottom and it will be interesting to see if Bob says something other than 'Buy on the Dips.'  I'd say odds are 60-40 against.

I'm thinking during the next run-up,  time to start looking at equities weighted more towards fixed income.

Western Lithium .........Need I say More?


This month's chart reminds me of one long-term permabull in Western Lithium who was proud of the fact that he bought in at .15 and continued buying in over the years all the way up to a dollar and never sold a share.  It is looking to me like in the not too distant future, that all his shares will be revisiting .15 again.

Doesn't make much sense to be 'long and strong and proud of it, when one could perhaps done a lot of selling and locked in those gains and perhaps make a few house payments with the proceeds,  turning a 15 year loan into a 12 year one and paying off the house early.

I dunno......maybe it's just me.

GoPro (GPRO)  - Not so Pleased at Present


Gopro's stock price too a big hit during this correction and that is one of the hazards of new growth stocks and the momentum that can follow them. 

When a stock starts selling off, one has several options which are:

A:  Sell and take a loss

B:  Buy more shares on the way down, averaging down the cost.

C  Hold.

I opted for option B and as of this date, all the shares I have are under water.

I think when the market rebounds, so will the stock price but it might take a while.

Related: Ambarella - AMBA


Ambarella among other things, provides software to GoPro and its fortunes are tied to those of GoPro so one does have to take that into account when having positions in both stocks.  At current trading prices, I think it is worth taking a position in Ambarella. 

One of my favorite free sites for trading ideas:


Google Finance provides daily brief summaries of winners and losers in four areas.  Trolling through them early in the trading session is a good way to find securities which might be worth a short term trading opportunity.  Specifically,  I look for stocks that got hammered for no good reason like missing estimates buy a penny or two,  or failing to give stellar forward earnings guidance. 

I've seen good companies lose 10+ percent of their value at the start of a trading session over petty items.  If I see something I like that got walloped in early trading, I watch the ticker until I start seeing a turnaround and then I try to scoop up some shares,  hold for a few days (sometimes longer) and then sell them back.

I'd say that works well about 70% of the time.  Sometimes it works not so well.  Not worth betting the farm on a method like this, but it is a way to make a few extra $$.

Current Allocation:

Banks 8.15%
Biotech .99%
Cash .1%
Investing Co's 0.2%
Telecom 11.07%
Manufacturing 18.6%
Insurance 4.17%
Raw Mtrls/ Chem 5.99%
Retail 2.77%
Tech 12.82%
Food/Drugs / Sin 15.35%
MF -  G&I 5.55%
MF - Value 4.09%
MF - Small Cap 3.57%
MF-Large Cap 5.37%
MF-Sector 2.29%

It's always a good idea to do a periodic review of what you are holding where and see if the allocation makes sense.

I'm good with this is assuming of course the economy at some point does more than just stumble along and that is the reason for a heavier weighting in manufacturing.  Food and drugs - everyone needs them.  Tech and Telecom - I think that a substantial weighting in these sectors goes without saying.

And last but not least, the Capitalist Pigs latest Monthly Newsletter.

All that glitters is not gold, silver or commodities, or REIT's.

One thing......don't pay attention to the charts if they are confusing  (I am not a chartist so sometimes they are).  Ignore the charts and read the text, which makes a lot more sense to me than the charts often do.


The New Dog