March, 2012

"Most of these financial doomsday prophets are trying to sell you something to save you from doomsday." 

~ Kent P, in reference to the latest spate of 2012  forecasts of doom.

The Professional Opinion

None this month - taking a subscription vacation.

Buy Recommendations

From the Compost Bin:  According to Suze, another Doomsday Prophet,  buy no more than 15% gold, buy TIPS, ETFs and Dividend paying stocks.

 Scrub Jay
If you ever wanted to see a closeup of a Scrub Jay, here's one.  Might I suggest heavy gloves when handling Scrub Jays.

Personal Portfolio

Elephant Seal
Guess where I'm going next month......

February  was not a bad month all in all and cleanup was the main focus of the portfolio.  I got rid of CIM and replaced it with the better quality CXS. HollyFrontier was sold the proceeds were used to buy a little more DOW, a position in Staples and a few more shares of Amazon.  Nice to see those banks making a slow, steady comeback


Personal Portfolio

Dividend Devestation

Boy this is a great way to end the month.  

This moron would virtually triple the tax rates on dividends,  further devastating the ability of those retired  to generate an income from the dividends they depend on.  

A man of the people???????   No friggin' way.

Our grand experiment in electing a teleprompter to the highest office in the land is an abysmal failure and a serious change needs to result from the coming elections.

And as  to Mr Buffet,  he needs to keep his pie hole shut.  If he doesn't think he's paying enough in taxes then I assume he still knows what a check book is.  Jeesh.



I don't  of what significance 2012 is to the prophets of doom, but boy are they getting cranked up.

It is interesting that if you look a little closer at just who these people are, you find they all have a vested interest in selling doom and this comes in the form of:

> Books

> Advice

> Gold

> Annuities

> Redirecting your Rollover 401K and other retirement accounts.

And.....if you look even closer, why they all know each other.

Imagine that!

The Flip Side

Me,  I think I will stick with people I respect who actually physically crunch the numbers using real data.

I don't believe there is much value in forecasting trends based on phases of the moon, biblical prophecy or the price of gold.

Fear and Negativity sells product and I suspect that's what the doom sayers are really trying to do.

So what does one do about the price of oil?

1. Vote out the current administration.

2. Perhaps pick up a company that has oil in the ground, preferably in the US to use as a bit of a hedge.

I originally thought the refiners were the more attractive out of the group and in that I was partially right, in that the refiners in my view were under valued.  I was right, insofar as HollyFrontier was concerned.

Marathon Oil


Marathon oil is a company not without its problems, especially with its holdings outside of the US.  

Add to that missing the usual dividend declaration date, spinning of  MPC and the stock really got a haircut.

Everything else I think looks pretty good and considering the price of oil and the relatively low PE of the stock,  I figure it's worth 2.5% of the portfolio and at the purchase price of  $34.68 on a dip this morning,  I think it's worth the investment.  I rather highly doubt the 'religion of peace' over there in the Mideast is going to show much brotherly love anytime soon.   


And how about that Huntsman (HUN)....

Huntsman continues to impress and I think a contribution to the run-up in stock price is Jon Huntsman getting back to the business of running the company and not running for the presidency.

The stock recently went over 5% of the portfolio, again, but I think I will let it run for a while longer before scaling back.

It's sure be nice to see the price over 21.00 again.  I could use some more fence work and there's a power line I'd like to bury.



Office Depot reported earnings this morning and to everyone's amazement, the company actually went into the black.  The stock jumped nicely, but personally I'd stay away from this one.


Staples (SPLS) is reporting tomorrow (02-29) and they are getting a bit of a bump from Office Depot.  I'm picking up some shares today, thinking that the profit picture just might be rosier than the prophets of doom think.

The company is priced reasonably and does seem to be recovering. Their stores are clean and their inventory is decent enough that I occasionally browse the store myself.  I even buy something on the odd occasion.

It'd be nice to see them pick up where HollyFrontier left off, portfolio speaking.



Well, you win some and you lose some.  Staples came in line with estimates and the stock got creamed.   I think this is worth holding on to for a while anyway.
No real bad numbers or anything, but nothing overly impressive either.

Current Allocations

AllocationThis looks a little better, I think.   I'd like to get the banks whittled down to a smaller percentage over time.  It doesn't help matters when one sees BofA dropping to six and change. That was just too tempting.

The real estate allocation could also be upped a bit because there's a lot of real estate buying going on and some of the larger companies I like are scooping up properties.  I'm more interested in the paper holding REITs, rather than the physical property itself and I think more of a weighting there would be beneficial.

Energy.....the sector is so volatile anymore that a minor weighting works best for what I want.

Being overweight in banks, telecom, raw materials and food at this juncture should be extremely beneficial should the political landscape make an extreme right turn later on this year.


What we have here is CNBC's
 prophet, seer, revelator - and major PITA.    Detailed Opinion Here

Financial Analyst - NOT

Soothsayer - NOT

Bearer of Practical Financial Opinion - Occasional

Man's Worst Nightmare - Maybe......

Having to listen to annuity pitches interspersed with vitamin infomercials  could be worse.

Let's  keep track of just  how well this PITA's  'predictions' pan out for the rest of the year.

2012 Predicted Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gold $2,000.00 1736.7 1716.28
Recession  60% Chance Nope! Nope!
TIPS Current 5yr Yield Home Run - Maybe 0.95% 0.90%

The Forgotten Man

The Forgotten Man - another great reason to vote out the current administration ASAP.    Here is the Full Sized Image