February, 2012

"Here is a surprising prediction for you.

' I have said for years now that I thought 2012 was going to be a horrific year, and I have to tell you, I still kind of think that.....

'My sense is that we could be in for a long, slow period of recovery and it will be 2014 or 2015 before we feel more hopeful.

~ More fine commentary from Suze - CNBC prophet, seer and
revelator .

The Professional Opinion

None this month - taking a subscription vacation.

Highly Questionable Buy Recommendations

According to Suze,  buy no more than 15% gold, buy TIPS, ETFs and Dividend paying stocks.

 Pontoon Bridge
Pontoon bridge - Curacao.

Personal Portfolio

January certainly was a reversal of fortune for most portfolios.  One thing rather disconcerting is average NYSE trading volume for the month was 20% less than January of 2011.  Thin volume leads to more volatility.

Meanwhile, the teleprompter blathered on again about doing what it takes to create jobs - unless of course it involves the Keystone pipeline or  any other fossil fuel.  What an embarrassment to the country.


Personal Portfolio


Huntsman remains one of my favorite stocks.  Fenced 3/4 of an acre with the proceeds from this one.  I sold all my shares during the run-up last year and have been slowly buying during the latter dips.  At these prices it still has an attractive dividend when compared to treasuries.

Will it return to its prior highs?  Maybe...but I think it would be prudent to take some profits along the way.


Annaly came out with their 4th quarter commentary, and it did not sound rosy.   4th Quarter Commentary


Jefferies continues to improve and its detractors continue to eat crow.


HollyFrontier still looks like a bargain to me,  



I picked up a little Calumet for the dividend,  and I wanted one more refiner, and one whose market differed from HFC.  



My speculative investment is KIT Digital, which provides cloud-based services as well as a host of others.  In the 4th quarter of 2011,  it appeared to have finally turned the corner and delivered surprising results. I've already taken the profits out of this once and am hanging on to the balance.


Late Entry:  Amazon

Amazon guided lower and the shares fell off sharply.  Frankly, I think this is a buying opportunity and picked up enough to fill up 2.75% of the portfolio.

There were a number of written opinions all concerned with Amazon's spending too much money to build out and expand.


I thought the idea was to expand by building out in order to gain market share.

I got my shares in the $177 range and I think that at these levels, Amazon remains a bargain.


What we have here is CNBC's
 prophet, seer, revelator - and major PITA.    Detailed Opinion Here

Financial Analyst - NOT

Soothsayer - NOT

Bearer of Practical Financial Opinion - Occasional

Man's Worst Nightmare - Maybe......

Having to listen to annuity pitches interspersed with vitamin infomercials  could be worse.

Let's  keep track of just  how well this PITA's  'predictions' pan out for the rest of the year. 

2012 Predicted Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gold $2,000.00 1736.7
Recession  60% Chance Nope!
TIPS Current 5yr Yield Home Run - Maybe -0.95%

The latest Reno Fire

Washoe fire - January, 2012.  Allegedly started by improper ash disposal.